Emerging-Markets Inflation Outlook: A 2026 Bump, Not Yet a New Regime
Current numbers
Inflation across emerging markets is reaccelerating, although estimates differ by country coverage. The OECD’s September 2026 Economic Outlook projects headline inflation in G20 emerging-market economies to rise from 4.1% in 2025 to 4.8% in 2026, before easing to 4.3% in 2027. The UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs presents a more severe picture for the broader developing-economy universe: inflation is forecast to climb from 4.2% to 5.2% in 2026, reflecting higher energy, transport and import costs.
Regional dispersion is substantial. The Asian Development Bank’s September 2026 Asian Development Outlook forecasts developing Southeast Asian inflation at 4.0% in 2026 and 3.3% in 2027, both revised upward. Its relevant subregional forecast for economies facing especially acute price pressures was raised to 23.1% for 2026 and 17.6% for 2027. The ADB reports inflation of 10.6% in the Kyrgyz Republic and a 5.2% 2026 forecast for Georgia, while noting continued disinflation in Türkiye and moderation in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
Country-level OECD projections reinforce the divergence. Inflation is expected to fall from 4.7% in 2026 to 4.2% in 2027 in India, and from 3.3% to 3.0% in Indonesia. China moves in the opposite direction, from 1.4% to 1.9%, as spare production capacity diminishes. Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Argentina and Türkiye are expected to experience further moderation in 2027.
Consensus view
The consensus is that the 2026 inflation increase is a temporary, supply-driven interruption to disinflation, rather than the start of a persistent inflationary cycle. Energy, fertilizer, transport and import costs are lifting headline rates, but weaker demand, restrictive monetary policy, more adaptable supply chains and improved central-bank credibility should limit second-round effects.
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